The Art of Logic · Part 21 · Induction and evidence · C1
Weighing a Contested Question
Part 21 of The Art of Logic: everything in this course comes together when a question is genuinely disputed. State it precisely, give each side its strongest case, test both for fallacies, and weigh the evidence. Balanced argument (on the one hand…, while it is true that…, the evidence points to…), with Philo, Sophia, Marcos and Demetria.
Tonight, our last lesson in logic, and the hardest: a question people truly disagree about.
The causes of a war. Wars are where people argue hardest about what happened and why, because the answer decides who was right.
Everything: terms, propositions, syllogisms, fallacies and induction. That is what logic is for.
1. State the question precisely. “What caused the war?” may mean the immediate trigger, the deeper causes, or what each side said it was fighting for. These are different questions with different answers. 2. Give each side its strongest case, as its best defenders would put it: the principle of charity.
3. Test each side for fallacies: false cause, hasty generalisation, straw men, appeals. 4. Weigh the evidence: prefer primary sources (written at the time, by those involved) to later ones; ask who wrote each source, when, and why; look for corroboration, independent sources that agree.
5. Proportion your belief to the evidence. Say how confident you are, and why, and what evidence would change your mind. Sometimes the evidence clearly favours one side; sometimes it is genuinely balanced. Logic does not tell you which in advance.
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